Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 25 | 12.0 | 8.9% | 133 | 1.16% |
| 10-19 | 44 | 17.0 | 10.8% | 160 | 1.18% |
| 20-29 | 117 | 44.1 | 26.9% | 400 | 1.91% |
| 30-39 | 62 | 31.0 | 20.6% | 306 | 2.25% |
| 40-49 | 44 | 18.7 | 12.9% | 192 | 1.83% |
| 50-59 | 24 | 12.0 | 8.7% | 129 | 1.03% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 8.9 | 6% | 90 | 0.78% |
| 70+ | 12 | 8.4 | 5.2% | 77 | 0.74% |
| All ages | 342 | 152.4 | 100% | 1488 | 1.42% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30 | 20995 | 67443 | 617 | 163 | 863 |
| Dec 31 | 21032 | 67561 | 617 | 163 | 815 |
| Jan 01 | 21033 | 67602 | 617 | 163 | 707 |
| Jan 02 | 21073 | 67644 | 617 | 163 | 746 |
| Jan 03 | 21339 | 67723 | 621 | 163 | 1012 |
| Jan 04 | 21552 | 67787 | 624 | 163 | 1224 |
| Jan 05 | 21894 | 67905 | 627 | 163 | 1488 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30 | 13940 | 39207 | 596 | 144 | 466 |
| Dec 31 | 13945 | 39271 | 597 | 144 | 430 |
| Jan 01 | 13945 | 39296 | 597 | 144 | 353 |
| Jan 02 | 13951 | 39311 | 597 | 144 | 358 |
| Jan 03 | 14084 | 39348 | 601 | 145 | 491 |
| Jan 04 | 14181 | 39401 | 606 | 147 | 588 |
| Jan 05 | 14242 | 39446 | 608 | 147 | 648 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 5.3 | 9.4% | 61 | 0.79% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 5.6 | 8.2% | 53 | 0.63% |
| 20-29 | 12 | 10.9 | 18.7% | 121 | 1.7% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 10.0 | 16.7% | 108 | 1.28% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 8.9 | 15.3% | 99 | 1.28% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 6.9 | 13.1% | 85 | 0.88% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 6.4 | 11% | 71 | 0.84% |
| 70+ | 4 | 4.1 | 7.6% | 49 | 0.69% |
| All ages | 61 | 58.1 | 100% | 648 | 1% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30 | 10568 | 26154 | 469 | 116 | 294 |
| Dec 31 | 10621 | 26191 | 475 | 116 | 326 |
| Jan 01 | 10643 | 26201 | 475 | 116 | 327 |
| Jan 02 | 10671 | 26221 | 475 | 116 | 329 |
| Jan 03 | 10714 | 26255 | 477 | 116 | 355 |
| Jan 04 | 10791 | 26301 | 479 | 119 | 413 |
| Jan 05 | 10886 | 26319 | 481 | 119 | 491 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 3.0 | 5.5% | 27 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 3.1 | 6.3% | 31 | 0.57% |
| 20-29 | 17 | 9.7 | 19.8% | 97 | 2.14% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 7.1 | 16.9% | 83 | 1.53% |
| 40-49 | 16 | 9.4 | 15.7% | 77 | 1.55% |
| 50-59 | 14 | 9.6 | 16.1% | 79 | 1.16% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 6.3 | 12% | 59 | 0.93% |
| 70+ | 10 | 4.1 | 7.7% | 38 | 0.6% |
| All ages | 95 | 52.4 | 100% | 491 | 1.09% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30 | 22297 | 80140 | 824 | 139 | 1040 |
| Dec 31 | 22428 | 80317 | 828 | 139 | 1007 |
| Jan 01 | 22429 | 80338 | 828 | 139 | 922 |
| Jan 02 | 22639 | 80392 | 828 | 139 | 975 |
| Jan 03 | 23040 | 80538 | 839 | 139 | 1330 |
| Jan 04 | 23510 | 80670 | 839 | 139 | 1800 |
| Jan 05 | 23904 | 80875 | 847 | 139 | 2107 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 35 | 20.0 | 8.5% | 179 | 1.51% |
| 10-19 | 66 | 32.9 | 13.2% | 278 | 1.68% |
| 20-29 | 77 | 54.6 | 22.4% | 472 | 2.22% |
| 30-39 | 84 | 48.0 | 20.6% | 435 | 3.2% |
| 40-49 | 61 | 34.6 | 14% | 294 | 2.16% |
| 50-59 | 43 | 26.0 | 10.9% | 230 | 1.62% |
| 60-69 | 15 | 15.1 | 6.4% | 134 | 0.94% |
| 70+ | 12 | 10.7 | 4% | 84 | 0.65% |
| All ages | 394 | 242.0 | 100% | 2107 | 1.78% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30 | 72607 | 456846 | 2256 | 409 | 4033 |
| Dec 31 | 72611 | 457832 | 2263 | 409 | 3659 |
| Jan 01 | 72613 | 458117 | 2263 | 409 | 3211 |
| Jan 02 | 72759 | 458497 | 2264 | 409 | 2858 |
| Jan 03 | 73455 | 458938 | 2266 | 416 | 3474 |
| Jan 04 | 74277 | 459479 | 2249 | 420 | 4296 |
| Jan 05 | 74941 | 460082 | 2248 | 421 | 4716 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 77 | 59.1 | 14.2% | 668 | 1.11% |
| 10-19 | 125 | 78.0 | 19.2% | 906 | 1.27% |
| 20-29 | 172 | 98.9 | 25.4% | 1200 | 1.16% |
| 30-39 | 110 | 61.1 | 16.4% | 775 | 1.01% |
| 40-49 | 91 | 40.6 | 11.3% | 532 | 0.81% |
| 50-59 | 44 | 25.3 | 6.9% | 326 | 0.5% |
| 60-69 | 31 | 14.3 | 3.9% | 184 | 0.34% |
| 70+ | 14 | 10.9 | 2.7% | 125 | 0.25% |
| All ages | 664 | 388.1 | 100% | 4716 | 0.86% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30 | 1120669 | 3840482 | 54359 | 11173 | 54125 |
| Dec 31 | 1125161 | 3848553 | 54568 | 11182 | 52891 |
| Jan 01 | 1128127 | 3851035 | 54583 | 11185 | 49636 |
| Jan 02 | 1132361 | 3853209 | 54590 | 11185 | 48919 |
| Jan 03 | 1142290 | 3858103 | 54871 | 11246 | 56725 |
| Jan 04 | 1156050 | 3864425 | 55068 | 11319 | 69762 |
| Jan 05 | 1170504 | 3871307 | 55278 | 11376 | 81512 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1341 | 774.0 | 9.3% | 7601 | 1.19% |
| 10-19 | 2217 | 1139.0 | 13.6% | 11107 | 1.47% |
| 20-29 | 3018 | 1663.4 | 20.1% | 16421 | 2.17% |
| 30-39 | 2312 | 1424.7 | 17.5% | 14265 | 1.88% |
| 40-49 | 1922 | 1142.9 | 13.9% | 11349 | 1.62% |
| 50-59 | 1785 | 999.7 | 12.1% | 9856 | 1.21% |
| 60-69 | 1112 | 656.4 | 7.9% | 6448 | 0.85% |
| 70+ | 728 | 455.6 | 5.4% | 4399 | 0.69% |
| All ages | 14454 | 8263.6 | 100% | 81512 | 1.4% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-01-27 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 11155"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges